Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Pokrovsk assault “on hold” with Russia close to taking Kurakhove, Azerbaijani plane hit over Chechnya

In this week’s summary:

• The Russian Armed Forces have almost captured Kurakhove, with further developments depending on the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s (AFU) ability to maintain defensive lines along the Sukhi Yaly River.
• The Russian command has reportedly put its assault on Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk Region “on hold,” focusing instead on expanding control south of the city.
• In the Toretsk and Pokrovsk sectors, Russian forces have been using civilian vehicles and even electric scooters during assaults.
• Russian forces have gained physical and fire control over all roads leading into Velyka Novosilka in the Vremivka sector.
• A page from a North Korean serviceman’s notebook outlining tactics for “luring” drones using human “bait” has been made public.
• The use of Russian glide bombs equipped with UMPK guidance kits on Ukrainian territory has been steadily decreasing.
• During a drone attack in the North Caucasus, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger plane was struck by an air-defense missile while flying over Chechnya.
• Western-made machinery is being used in the production of Russia’s new “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile, according to the Financial Times.

Situation at the front

Self-styled “war correspondent” Yuri Kotenok reported that Russian forces had gained near-total control of Kurakhove. A Ukrainian serviceman managing the Telegram channel Officer ✙ reported that the city is facing constant assaults and strikes from guided aerial bombs. In the southern sector of the Kurakhove operational area, open source intelligence (OSINT) project DeepState noted that Ukrainian forces have lost control of Zelenivka and Sukhi Yaly.

Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets, discussing the battles around Kurakhove (1, 2, 3, 4), highlighted the risk of Russian forces cutting off the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia highway, which could severely impact Ukrainian logistics in the area. The development depends on the AFU’s ability to maintain defensive lines along the Sukhi Yaly River.

On the Pokrovsk front, the author of the Officer ✙ channel reported (1, 2) that the assault on the city has been “put on hold,” with Russian forces focusing instead on expanding their control to the south. They reportedly captured Novoolenivka and Ukrainka, with pro-Russian blogger Yuri Kotenok claiming that Russian troops are now assaulting the village of Yasenove, west of Ukrainka. According to the channel, attacks in the Pokrovsk sector are predominantly being carried out with cars and other civilian vehicles — such as vans and Niva SUVs. Officer ✙ also shared footage of Russian assaults carried out using unarmored vehicles, sparking confusion and frustration among pro-Russian Telegram commentators (1, 2) on Telegram.

On the Toretsk front, Russian forces were seen to have used electric scooters as part of their assaults. Footage from the sector also revealed Russian troops using civilian Lada sedans in an attempted advance.

North of Velyka Novosilka, DeepState reported that Russian forces are attempting to seize full control of the village of Novyi Komar. Russian pro-war blogger Yuri Kotenok mentioned Ukrainian counterattacks in this area, but claimed that all paved roads leading to Velyka Novosilka are under Russian physical or fire control.

Ukrainian serviceman Stanislav Bunyatov wrote about Russian attempts to capture Terny on the Lyman front, claiming that Russian forces have made some advances. The author of Officer ✙ also described the difficult situation around Terny.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has reported the capture of Ivanivka, Lozova, and Zagryzovo on the Kupiansk front. However, reports from pro-Russian channels (1, 2) suggest that, at least in the case of Zagryzovo, the claim was premature. Mashovets believes that Russian forces have struggled to expand their right-bank bridgehead along the Oskil River near Dvorichne — which is why Russia is currently concentrating its efforts on the southern part of a salient near Kruhliakivka. Ukraine's 92nd Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled a Russian attempt to extend the left-bank bridgehead on the Oskil.

As for the Kursk Region, footage shows destroyed Russian equipment near the crossing at Daryino on the western flank of the Ukrainian bridgehead. Updated analytics from OSINT analyst Naalsio reveal that, between December 3 and 23, Ukrainian forces lost at least 34 vehicles in the Kursk Region, while Russian forces lost 103.

Meanwhile, the Officer ✙ channel claimed that Russian forces have advanced in the area of Sudzha, capturing a 2-kilometer-wide and 2-kilometer-deep section of the frontline. Geolocation of one video indicates that Russian troops have taken the central part of Kurilovka.

Ukrainian troops have shared videos of strikes against what appear to be North Korean soldiers, who are suffering heavy losses, according to a report by The Times. There are reports of Ukraine capturing its first North Korean prisoner of war — though South Korean intelligence indicates that the soldier later died of his wounds. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces recovered a paper notebook from another deceased North Korean soldier. It contained a manual for countering FPV drones using human “bait,” with one soldier presenting himself as a target while others open fire on the drone.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

Ukraine’s Air Force reported the interception of 279 Iranian-designed Shahed and other similar drones out of 509 launched over the past week. An additional 235 drones were “radar-lost” — meaning either that they were decoys or were brought down using electronic warfare (EW).

The Air Force also reported intercepting 66 of 82 missiles of various types during the same period, 78 of which were launched on the night of Dec. 25 in another massive strike targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. According to a report by the Mykolaivsky Vanyok Telegram channel, this strike also targeted heating, water, and gas supply systems.

The following strikes on civilian infrastructure by Russian forces were reported:

• Dec. 20: Five people, including a 12-year-old boy, were injured in an attack on Zaporizhzhia (1, 2).
• Night of Dec. 21: Drones struck residential buildings in the Saltivka and Kyiv districts of Kharkiv, injuring eight people.
• Dec. 24: A strike on a residential building in Kryvyi Rih in the Dnipropetrovsk Region killed one person and injured 17 others.
• Dec. 26: A kamikaze drone strike on a central market in Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk Region injured eight people. In the Kharkiv Region, a guided bomb strike on the village of Zolochiv killed one resident and injured another. An FPV drone attack on an apartment building in Chasiv Yar killed two civilians and injured two others.

Additionally, independent news outlet Astra reported an “unintentional release” of three more Russian aerial bombs in the Belgorod Region (1, 2). This brings the total number of aerial bombs dropped by Russia’s Aerospace Forces on Russian territory and occupied areas of Ukraine to 165 since the beginning of the year. However, according to data from the Ukrainian General Staff compiled by OSINT researcher Imi (m), Russia’s use of aerial bombs is generally declining.

The Russian MoD reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the destruction of 143 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory during the past week. Ukrainian forces carried out strikes on the following targets:

• Kazan: UAVs struck residential buildings — though the actual targets may have been a gunpowder and helicopter plant, a military unit, or an airfield located at an aircraft manufacturing plant (1, 2).
• Oryol Region: A strike on an oil depot in the village of Stalnoi Kon.
• Rostov Region: An attack on an ammunition depot at the Kadamovsky training ground near Novocherkassk.
• Kursk Region: A strike on a temporary Russian military deployment site in Rylsk killed five civilians.
• Rostov Region: An attack on the Millerovo military airfield caused no personnel or equipment losses, according to a report by the Telegram channel Fighterbomber, which is closely affiliated with Russia’s Aerospace Forces.
• North Caucasus: Strikes in North Ossetia, Ingushetia, and Chechnya. In Vladikavkaz, a drone hit a shopping center, killing one woman and injuring 15 others. During an attempted drone interception over Grozny, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger plane was likely damaged by a missile explosion near the aircraft; it later crashed near Aktau in southwestern Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people onboard.
• Tambov Region: A strike on the “Transnefteprodukt” dispatcher station in the village of Novonikolskoye caused a boiler room fire, but no casualties.
• Kursk Region: A strike on the command post of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Lgov killed several officers, as well as three civilians. Five others were hospitalized.
• Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia: A strike on a field meeting of the command staff of the 4th Military Base on occupied territory killed three captains.
• Bryansk Region: An attack on the Desna oil pumping station destroyed two transformers; no casualties were reported.

Losses

On Dec. 22, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets claimed that Russian soldiers had executed five captured Ukrainian soldiers. A video of the reported incident, filmed from a drone, was published by the 110th Mechanized Brigade's UAV battalion. A pro-Russian OSINT channel, Slivochniy Kapriz, described the footage as the “clean-up” of Ukrainian positions in the northern part of the village of Blahodatne.

The independent Russian publication Mediazona reported that over 10,000 criminal cases for refusing military service were filed in Russian courts in 2024 — almost twice as many as the previous year. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, over 16,000 cases have been filed, most of them (14,182) under charges of desertion.

Weapons and military vehicles

Donald Trump’s closest foreign policy aides have notified European officials of the incoming administration’s intention to demand that NATO countries increase military spending to 5% of GDP (up from the current threshold of 2%) and that the United States plans to continue providing military assistance to Ukraine, according to a report by the Financial Times.

An official list of weapons and military equipment delivered to Ukraine from Germany indicated that the AFU recently received the following:

• 1 IRIS-T SLM air defense battery
• 2 IRIS-T SLS launchers
• 12 MRAP vehicles
• 2 MIM-104 Patriot launchers
• 1 PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer
• 15 Leopard 1A5 tanks
• 2 TRML-4D radar systems
• 52,000 155-mm artillery shells
• 15,000 120-mm mortar rounds

New details have emerged regarding the production of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile. An analysis of missile debris from the strike on the city of Dnipro on Nov. 21 suggests it may have been manufactured between 2017 and 2018, and that it was based on the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile. According to a report by the Financial Times, the Oreshnik is still being produced using Western equipment — specifically Japanese and German machine tools.