Experts: Crash evidence demands international probe of Grozny-bound flight

An Azerbaijan Airlines plane, flying from Baku to Grozny on December 25, requested an emergency landing at Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan for unknown reasons but ultimately crashed there. Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed, while the rest survived. Among the dead were seven Russian citizens.

One theory suggests the Embraer 190 aircraft was unable to land in Grozny due to heavy fog. Another claims it had to divert its route because the North Caucasus region was under a drone attack at the time, and Grozny Airport was not accepting flights. Images from the crash site reveal holes in the tail section of the plane. Azerbaijan Airlines has announced the suspension of flights to Grozny and Makhachkala until the investigation into the crash is concluded.

An independent aviation expert who was involved in the investigation of the MH17 crash told The Insider on condition of anonymity that he believes the authorities in Kazakhstan will delegate the investigation of the Embraer 190 crash to the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC).

“The IAC is the authorized body for conducting investigations under ICAO's regulations and mandate. The Kazakhs will hand the investigation over to the IAC, which is heavily influenced by Russia. Essentially, we could be looking at another MH17 scenario. On the other hand, shrapnel-like marks are impossible to conceal now. The key question is: who was responsible for bringing the plane down? What will the IAC say? That it wasn’t Russia? Then who—Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan?

The IAC will carry out the investigation and publish a report. If Rosaviatsiya were in charge, the investigation could drag on indefinitely just to avoid releasing any findings. There are many aviation disasters in Russia that remain unresolved to this day. The IAC, however, adheres to ICAO protocols: an initial report within a few months, followed by annual updates, and the case must eventually be closed. It’s also worth noting that there were foreign nationals on board the plane. Moreover, both the aircraft manufacturer and the engine developers are foreign companies.

When Prigozhin’s plane was blown up, the manufacturer offered to send specialists to assist, but Rosaviatsiya claimed no such help was needed. In this case, however, the IAC won’t be able to dismiss the manufacturer’s involvement, as there will be foreign stakeholders linked to the aircraft and the development of its engines. This time, sweeping everything under the rug simply won’t be an option.”

Another aviation expert, speaking to The Insider on condition of anonymity, also believes that the investigation into the Embraer 190 crash will be handled by the IAC.

“Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are members of the IAC, making it the appropriate body to conduct the investigation. Experts from Azerbaijan should be involved because the airline is based there, representatives from Kazakhstan due to the crash occurring on Kazakh territory, and specialists from Brazil as the aircraft was manufactured by the Brazilian aerospace company Embraer.

If it’s confirmed that the plane was shot down, there will likely be efforts to obscure the truth, shift blame, and so on. It’s possible that Brazilian experts could be excluded from the investigation. Remember the case of Prigozhin’s plane. However, the Brazilians might insist on involving representatives from the countries that produced the engine, for example. Although the IAC is headquartered in Russia and its chairperson is Russian, this investigation does not directly concern Russia. That said, Russian representatives will undoubtedly participate in some capacity. There would be a significant international outcry if the IAC were to refuse to invite Brazilian experts.”

Footage filmed inside the plane before the crash shows that the emergency oxygen mask system had been deployed, which typically happens in cases of depressurization or a loss of cabin pressure.

The Telegram channel Niyso reported that a Pantsir-S1 air defense system was active over Grozny and shared video footage of the operation.

An aviation expert who participated in the MH17 crash investigation is confident that the Embraer 190 disaster was caused by external factors.

“No one heard an explosion because it occurred in the tail section. If something approached from behind, the aircraft would immediately lose control. Theoretically, it could have been a bird strike, but it’s clear now that this was shrapnel. In footage published by Mash, you can see severe pitch control issues—the yoke is pushed forward, and the plane dives.

This indicates a complete loss of control. The stabilizer, which serves as the elevator, adjusts the nose's pitch. Small adjustments cause minor changes, while larger adjustments cause more significant movement. In this case, the plane climbed, stalled, dropped its nose, and began a sharp descent. When the pilots tried to ease the controls, the plane plunged as though the yoke were fully pushed forward.

They fought to regain control until the very end. The malfunction made any slight yoke movement result in a nosedive. It’s evident they were trying to stabilize the plane. About a minute before the crash, it was flying level. The problem was that they needed to descend, but pushing the yoke forward risked a nose-first impact. They started banking to the right, which could indicate a control problem or an attempt to descend by slipping the plane onto its wing, a technique used by gliders. Gliders descend this way efficiently, but in this case, the plane didn’t land on a runway—it hit flat ground.

Over the steppe, they were losing altitude, and just before the crash, they managed to level the aircraft. It landed flat, but the vertical speed was too high. The tail section was torn off on impact, and the rest of the passengers likely died from explosions and fires.

Yes, it’s plausible there were birds at an altitude of 1.5 kilometers, but it’s unclear how birds could cause a tail control failure without also damaging the engines. When we see shrapnel, military involvement comes to mind.

It could have been our forces, as they were engaging drones over Grozny at the time. Alternatively, it could have been Azerbaijani or Kazakh forces. They may have been targeting a drone, but for some reason, the missile locked onto a distant target, failed to self-destruct, and hit the plane.

The presence of shrapnel suggests an anti-aircraft missile tracking the aircraft. If it was tracking, it likely came from the direction of Grozny, Kaspiysk, or Makhachkala. These are just hypotheses for now. From what I understand, all the critical issues began during the descent in Kazakhstan, not over Grozny.”